So. You’ve all been lead to believe that betting is a mugs game, right? That you cannot possibly win when betting because ‘the bookie always wins?’
I have some bad news. You’ve (probably) been lied to. What the parenthesis, you ask? Well, the probably is because your ability to make money in betting is entirely down to the methods used to do so (no shit, right?)
However, beating the overround is entirely possible – through a combination of methods. One is deemed ‘value betting’ (+EV regardless of outcome) and the other is having a direct edge (where the bookie has not correctly priced, you are betting inplay and the bookie has lost the edge, or various other methods)
**Disclaimer – Please ignore the below and these terms if they confuse you. I will be going over all of this in more detail over time.
**The reason you (randomly) cannot make money from betting is that the ISP of an event is generally (BSP / Pinnacle closing are seen as the standard, but from an industry standpoint, we’ll use ISP) the closest indication of the odds of an event happening. (ISP can and does differ from BSP – but that’s a different tale). When you factor in the overround of a bookie (the odds of an event do not truly match up to 100%, more like 102% (with some overrounds being higher) you will, over time, lose money (you’re returning £98 pound for every £100 invested
Both of these, over time, will make you money. This is where we start and where I will be explaining more on the concept of ‘betting for investment’ over the coming… however long.
Note: I am far from an expert on these matters and am always learning as I go along. This blog is indicative of that.
- Bundles of money: Keith Cooper via Flickr