It’s my favourite (possibly kidding) day of the week!

What’s the plan for today, I hear you ask?

2UP’s (Advice: Set a stop-loss on a per game QL and work to that)

Casino (Mostly low risk)

Betfair – Exchange refund offer.

This will completely tie my (five figure) bank up so I have zero room for anything else.

Remember however, it is absolutely irrelevant how much money we make today as long as everything we do is positive EV:

Expected value is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. In betting, theexpected value (EV) is the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet placed on the same odds time and time again.

Smarkets FAQ

Closely related however is a post I’ve written on ‘morale’ in betting.

Although Matched Betting doesn’t have the huge draw-downs that standard betting has, they can still be large – especially when doing the more… speculative offers like 2UP.

If you follow Oddsmonkey you can see the ‘morale’ effect in full swing in the various speculative offer threads (2UP Banter for example).

Set your limits, bet only what you’re comfortable to lose and ensure you can handle the eventual (sometimes large) downswings or you’ll never make the sort of money you potentially can.


A long term employee of the IT industry. Mark became involved with the betting industry in early 2017. He spends his spare time moaning about horses and football losing him money and bestowing his knowledge on betting theory to anybody who dares listen.

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